Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
10.22126/arww.2024.10170.1321
Abstract
According to most opinions of researchers, an increase in the population creates many restrictions in relation to water supply in the cities. Because an increase in the population causes climate change, water consumption in the sewage sector, lack of water infrastructure and rising demand for food production. Therefore, accurate planning is needed to predict population numbers in the future years. Therefore, in this research, a specific mathematical equation is introduced for predicting the Tabriz population in the future and two linear and quadratic equations are introduced for water consumption demand. Also, this study indicated that Tabriz's population growth rate followed on an exponential model from 1956 to 1975. Nevertheless, from 1976, later for various reasons, the population growth pattern turned out to be a logistics function model. In addition, by using this method, it is possible to better plan for the future of this city in terms of water scarcity, water demand and consumption, and water security. The used method can be applied to other cities and regions to predict the population numbers and to assess water scarcity.
Keywords
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Barbosa, C.F., and Rothwell, M. (2021) ‘Fitting the Portuguese population from 1850 to 2010 to a logistic growth model’, Journal of Student Research, 10 (2), pp. 1-12. doi: https://doi.org/10.47611/jsrhs.v10i2.1415
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Cohen, J.E. (1995) ‘Population growth and earth's human carrying capacity’, Science, 269 (5222), pp. 341-346. doi: http://doi.10.1126/science.7618100
Cooper, B., Burton, M., and Crase, L. (2011) ‘Urban water restrictions: Attitudes and avoidance’, Water Resources Research, 47, pp. 1-13. doi: http://doi:10.1029/2010WR010226
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Eslamian, S. (2014) ‘Handbook of engineering hydrology: environmental hydrology and water Management’, CRC Press. doi: https://doi: https://doi.org/10.1201/b16766
Falkenmark, M., Lundqvist, J., and Widstrand, C. (1989) ‘Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches’, Natural Research, Forum, 13 (4), pp. 258-267. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-8947.1989.tb00348.x
Fielding, K.S. et al. (2012) ‘Determinants of household water conservation: The role of demographic, infrastructure, behavior, and psychosocial variables’, Water Resources Research, 48, pp. 1-12. doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012398
Foster, S.S., and Chilton, P.J. (2003) ‘Groundwater – the processes and global significance of aquifer degradation’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 358 (1440), pp. 1957–1972. doi: http://doi:10.1098/rstb.2003.1380. PMC 1693287. PMID 14728791
Gesusldo, G.C. et al. (2019) ‘Assessing water security in the Sao Paulo city region under projected climate change’, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, pp. 4955-4956. doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4955-2019
Ginkel, KCHV. et al. (2018) ‘Urban water security dashboard: systems approach to characterizing the water security of cities’, Water Resource Planning Management, 12, pp. 1-11. doi: http://DOI: 10.1061/ (ASCE) WR.1943-5452.0000997
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Hathout, D. (2013) ‘Modeling population growth: exponential and hyperbolic modeling’, Applied Mathematics’, 4 (2), pp. 299-304. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/am.2013.42045
Helsel, D.R. et al. (2020) ‘Statistical methods in water resources’, Techniques and Methods, 2020(4-A3), pp. 1–484. doi: https://doi.org/10.3133/TM4A3
Statistical Center of Iran (2016) ' Population and Housing Census (Census 2016). Available at: https://old.sci.org.ir/english/Population-and-Housing-Censuses (Accessed 23 February 2024).
Khatibi, S., and Arjjumend, H. (2019) ‘Water crisis in making in Iran’, Grassroots Journal of Natural Resources, 2(3), pp. 45-54. doi: https://doi.org/10.33002/nr2581.6853.02034
Kummu, M. et al. (2016) 'The world's road on water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways towards sustainability', Scientific Reports, 6, p. 38495. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/srep38495
Liu, Y. et al. (2017) ‘Estimating models for reference evapotranspiration with core metrological parameters via path analysis’, Hydrology Research, 48 (2), pp. 340-354. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2016.240
Machiwal, D., and Jha, MK. (2008) ‘Cooperative evaluation of statistical tests for time series analysis: Application to hydrological time series’, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(3), pp. 353–366. doi: http://doi: 10.1623/hysj.53.2.353
Mekonnen, MM., and Hoekstra, AY. (2016) ‘Four billion people facing severe water scarcity’, Science Advances, 2(2), pp. 1-7. doi: http://doi.10.1126/sciadv.1500323
Moridi, A. (2017) ‘State of water resources in Iran’, International Journal Hydrology, 1(4), pp. 111‒114. doi: http://doi: 10.15406/ijh.2017.01.00021
Murgatroyd, A. et al. (2021) Water Security for Climate Resilience Report: A synthesis of research from the Oxford University REACH programme. University of Oxford, UK: REACH. Available at: https://reachwater.org.uk/wpcontent/uploads/2021/08/REACH-climate-report.pdf (Accessed date:15 January 2024 ).
Nyamao Nyabwanga, R. et al. (2015) ‘Statistical trend analysis of residential water demand in Kisumu City, Kenya’, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 4(3), pp. 112-117. doi: http://doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.16
Padowski, JC., and Jawitz, J.W. (2011) ‘Water availability and vulnerability of 225 large cities in the United States’, Water Resources Research, 48, p. W12529. Available at: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012WR012335 (Accessed date:20 January 2024 ).
Saatsaz, M. (2020) ‘Ahistorical investigation on water resources management in Iran’, Environmental Development and Sustainability, 22(3), 1749–1785. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-00307-
Shapiro, SS., and Wilk, MB. (1965) ‘An analysis of variance test for normality (Complete Samples)’, Biometrika, 52 (3-4), pp. 591-611. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/52.3-4.591
Sue, J., and Lesley, H. (2020) ‘Australia's mass fish kills as a crisis of modern water: Understanding hydro social change in the Murray-Darling Basin’, Geoforum, 109, pp. 44-56. doi: https://doi: 10.1016/j.geoforum.2019.12.020. ISSN 0016-7185
Ullrich, PA., et al. (2018) ‘California’s drought of the future: a midcentury recreation of the exceptional conditions of 2012–2017’, Earth’s Future, 6 (11), pp. 1568-1587. doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001007
Unicef, (2021) ‘Urban water scarcity guidance note report’, Available at: https://www.unicef.org/media/95381/file/Urban-Water-Scarcity-guidance-note.pdf (Accessed date: 2 January 2024).
Vinkatasha, P. et al. (2017) ‘Mathematical Modelling of Population Growth’, International Journal of Science, Engineering and Management (IJSEM), 11, pp. 117-121. Available at: https://www.technoarete.org/common_abstract/pdf/IJSEM/v4/i11/Ext_27318.pdf (Accessed date: 10 March 2024).
Vörösmarty, CJ. et al. (2000) ‘Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change’, Science, 289 (5477), pp. 284-288. doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284
Zarghami, M., and Akbariyeh, S. (2012) ‘System dynamics modeling for complex urban water systems: Application to the city of Tabriz, Iran’, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 60, pp. 99-106. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016 j.resconrec.2011.11.008
Al-Eideh, BM., and Al-Omar, HO. (2019) ‘Population projection model using exponential growth function with a birth and death diffusion growth rate processes’, European Journal of Scientific Research, 151 (3), pp. 271-276. Available at: https://www.academia.edu/38646482/Population_Projection_Model_using_Exponential_Growth_Function_with_a_Birth_and_Death_Diffusion_Growth_Rate_Processes (Accessed date:10 January 2024).
Andongwisye, J.M., and Allen, R.M. (2019) ‘Mathematical model for Tanzania population growth’, Tanzan Journal of Science, 45(3), pp. 346-354. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338753386Mathematical_Model_for_Tanzania_Population_Growth (Accessed date: 9 January 2024).
Barbosa, C.F., and Rothwell, M. (2021) ‘Fitting the Portuguese population from 1850 to 2010 to a logistic growth model’, Journal of Student Research, 10 (2), pp. 1-12. doi: https://doi.org/10.47611/jsrhs.v10i2.1415
Boreti, A., and Lorenzo, R. (2019) ‘Reassessing the projections of the world water development report’, NPJ Clean Water, 2 (1), pp. 1–6. doi: http://doi: 10.1038/s41545-019-0039-9. ISSN 2059-7037
Brika, B. (2019) 'The water crisis in Libya: causes, consequences and potential solutions,' Desalination and Water Treatment, 167, pp. 351 358. doi: https://doi.org/10.5004/dwt.2019.24592
Buschek, J. (2023) Exponential and logistic growth. Available at: https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/exponential-logistic-population-growth/ (Accessed: 24 December 2024).
Capet, T. et al. (2021) ‘Urban water demand: statistical optimization approach to modeling daily demand’, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 147(2), pp. 1-10. doi: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001315
Cohen, J.E. (1995) ‘Population growth and earth's human carrying capacity’, Science, 269 (5222), pp. 341-346. doi: http://doi.10.1126/science.7618100
Cooper, B., Burton, M., and Crase, L. (2011) ‘Urban water restrictions: Attitudes and avoidance’, Water Resources Research, 47, pp. 1-13. doi: http://doi:10.1029/2010WR010226
Di Mauro, A. et al. (2021) ‘Urban water consumption at multiple spatial and temporal scales, a review of existing datasets’, Water, 13, p. 36. doi: https://dx.doi.org/ 10.3390/w13010036 East Azarbaijan Province Water and waste water company, (2024), 'Company Performance Summery, Statistical Items ‘. available at: https://abfaazarbaijan.ir/ (Accessed date: 25 January 2024).
Eslamian, S. (2014) ‘Handbook of engineering hydrology: environmental hydrology and water Management’, CRC Press. doi: https://doi: https://doi.org/10.1201/b16766
Falkenmark, M., Lundqvist, J., and Widstrand, C. (1989) ‘Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches’, Natural Research, Forum, 13 (4), pp. 258-267. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-8947.1989.tb00348.x
Fielding, K.S. et al. (2012) ‘Determinants of household water conservation: The role of demographic, infrastructure, behavior, and psychosocial variables’, Water Resources Research, 48, pp. 1-12. doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012398
Foster, S.S., and Chilton, P.J. (2003) ‘Groundwater – the processes and global significance of aquifer degradation’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 358 (1440), pp. 1957–1972. doi: http://doi:10.1098/rstb.2003.1380. PMC 1693287. PMID 14728791
Gesusldo, G.C. et al. (2019) ‘Assessing water security in the Sao Paulo city region under projected climate change’, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, pp. 4955-4956. doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4955-2019
Ginkel, KCHV. et al. (2018) ‘Urban water security dashboard: systems approach to characterizing the water security of cities’, Water Resource Planning Management, 12, pp. 1-11. doi: http://DOI: 10.1061/ (ASCE) WR.1943-5452.0000997
Glass, N. (2010) ‘The water crisis in Yemen: Causes, consequences and solutions’ Global Majority E-Journal, 1(1), pp. 17-30. Available at: https://www.american.edu/cas/economics/ejournal/upload/glass_accessible.pdf (Accessed date:15 January 2024).
Hathout, D. (2013) ‘Modeling population growth: exponential and hyperbolic modeling’, Applied Mathematics’, 4 (2), pp. 299-304. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/am.2013.42045
Helsel, D.R. et al. (2020) ‘Statistical methods in water resources’, Techniques and Methods, 2020(4-A3), pp. 1–484. doi: https://doi.org/10.3133/TM4A3
Statistical Center of Iran (2016) ' Population and Housing Census (Census 2016). Available at: https://old.sci.org.ir/english/Population-and-Housing-Censuses (Accessed 23 February 2024).
Khatibi, S., and Arjjumend, H. (2019) ‘Water crisis in making in Iran’, Grassroots Journal of Natural Resources, 2(3), pp. 45-54. doi: https://doi.org/10.33002/nr2581.6853.02034
Kummu, M. et al. (2016) 'The world's road on water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways towards sustainability', Scientific Reports, 6, p. 38495. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/srep38495
Liu, Y. et al. (2017) ‘Estimating models for reference evapotranspiration with core metrological parameters via path analysis’, Hydrology Research, 48 (2), pp. 340-354. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2016.240
Machiwal, D., and Jha, MK. (2008) ‘Cooperative evaluation of statistical tests for time series analysis: Application to hydrological time series’, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(3), pp. 353–366. doi: http://doi: 10.1623/hysj.53.2.353
Mekonnen, MM., and Hoekstra, AY. (2016) ‘Four billion people facing severe water scarcity’, Science Advances, 2(2), pp. 1-7. doi: http://doi.10.1126/sciadv.1500323
Moridi, A. (2017) ‘State of water resources in Iran’, International Journal Hydrology, 1(4), pp. 111‒114. doi: http://doi: 10.15406/ijh.2017.01.00021
Murgatroyd, A. et al. (2021) Water Security for Climate Resilience Report: A synthesis of research from the Oxford University REACH programme. University of Oxford, UK: REACH. Available at: https://reachwater.org.uk/wpcontent/uploads/2021/08/REACH-climate-report.pdf (Accessed date:15 January 2024 ).
Nyamao Nyabwanga, R. et al. (2015) ‘Statistical trend analysis of residential water demand in Kisumu City, Kenya’, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 4(3), pp. 112-117. doi: http://doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.16
Padowski, JC., and Jawitz, J.W. (2011) ‘Water availability and vulnerability of 225 large cities in the United States’, Water Resources Research, 48, p. W12529. Available at: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012WR012335 (Accessed date:20 January 2024 ).
Saatsaz, M. (2020) ‘Ahistorical investigation on water resources management in Iran’, Environmental Development and Sustainability, 22(3), 1749–1785. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-00307-
Shapiro, SS., and Wilk, MB. (1965) ‘An analysis of variance test for normality (Complete Samples)’, Biometrika, 52 (3-4), pp. 591-611. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/52.3-4.591
Sue, J., and Lesley, H. (2020) ‘Australia's mass fish kills as a crisis of modern water: Understanding hydro social change in the Murray-Darling Basin’, Geoforum, 109, pp. 44-56. doi: https://doi: 10.1016/j.geoforum.2019.12.020. ISSN 0016-7185
Ullrich, PA., et al. (2018) ‘California’s drought of the future: a midcentury recreation of the exceptional conditions of 2012–2017’, Earth’s Future, 6 (11), pp. 1568-1587. doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001007
Unicef, (2021) ‘Urban water scarcity guidance note report’, Available at: https://www.unicef.org/media/95381/file/Urban-Water-Scarcity-guidance-note.pdf (Accessed date: 2 January 2024).
Vinkatasha, P. et al. (2017) ‘Mathematical Modelling of Population Growth’, International Journal of Science, Engineering and Management (IJSEM), 11, pp. 117-121. Available at: https://www.technoarete.org/common_abstract/pdf/IJSEM/v4/i11/Ext_27318.pdf (Accessed date: 10 March 2024).
Vörösmarty, CJ. et al. (2000) ‘Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change’, Science, 289 (5477), pp. 284-288. doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284
Zarghami, M., and Akbariyeh, S. (2012) ‘System dynamics modeling for complex urban water systems: Application to the city of Tabriz, Iran’, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 60, pp. 99-106. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016 j.resconrec.2011.11.008
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