Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.
2 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
Abstract
Despite concerted efforts to stabilize groundwater levels in arid regions through engineering interventions, aquifer depletion remains a critical challenge, often exacerbated by a disconnect between rigid top-down policies and local socio-economic realities. This study presents a forensic hydro-institutional analysis of the restoration and balancing plan in the hyper-arid Boshruyeh Plain, Iran, to evaluate the efficacy of technical controls versus economic instruments. By integrating a 27-year hydro-physical time series (1995–2023) with a tripartite stakeholder analysis (farmers, executive experts, and academic elites), the research reveals a complex paradox. Hydrological results indicate that while the implementation of smart metering post-2014 successfully induced a structural break in abstraction trends and enforced regulatory compliance, it failed to arrest the chronic annual deficit of ~62 MCM. Socio-institutional analysis exposes a significant perception gap; while academic elites emphasize participatory governance, executive experts identify technical and cultural barriers as primary causes of policy failure. However, a strategic consensus was found regarding the potential of water markets. Contrasting with common assumptions of resistance, 89% of farmers expressed willingness to participate in a regulated market, driven primarily by the need for operational flexibility and drought risk management rather than profit maximization. The study concludes that sustainable aquifer restoration requires a paradigm shift from a purely police-patrol model to a cap-and-trade system, utilizing existing metering infrastructure to facilitate inter-temporal water banking and cross-sectoral reallocation.
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